Wubei Zhi (Vol. 11)

Records of the Military of Cao, Volume 36: A Study of Strategy

Yuan Shao traveled two hundred li Approximately 60 miles or 100 kilometers from the city of Ye to personally welcome Liu Bei.

Meanwhile, Cao Cao returned his army to Guandu. Yuan Shao then held a council to discuss a direct assault on the city of Xu The capital city and seat of the Emperor. The strategist Tian Feng advised him: "Now that Cao Cao has already broken Liu Bei’s forces, the capital at Xu is no longer the empty shell it once was. Furthermore, Cao Cao is a master of military tactics; though his troops are currently few, he is not an opponent to be underestimated."

"It would be better," Tian Feng continued, "to play the long game. Externally, we should form alliances with other powerful leaders; internally, we should focus on our agriculture and military drills. Once prepared, we can select our elite units and launch alternating raids, striking wherever he is vulnerable. If he moves to save his right flank, we strike his left; if he saves his left, we strike his right. In this way, our forces will remain fresh while his become exhausted. Within three years, we can secure victory without even a major struggle."

"If you now abandon this strategy of 'victory through temple calculations' original: 廟勝之策 (miào shèng zhī cè); a reference to Sun Tzu's Art of War regarding the careful calculations made in the ancestral temple before a war begins and instead choose to gamble everything on a single battle, you will regret it if the outcome does not go as you wish."

Yuan Shao did not follow this advice. When Tian Feng continued to protest vehemently, Shao ordered him to be bound in wooden stocks and imprisoned. Thereupon, Shao issued a formal call to arms to the various provinces and commanderies, enumerating Cao Cao’s many crimes and wicked deeds. In the second month, he advanced his army to Liyang.

As the advisor Ju Shou was about to depart for the campaign, he gathered his kinsmen and distributed his personal wealth among them, saying: "When the tide of fortune is with us..."